Fortress of Solitude 🔰

Charles D'Ellis (old investment dude, still alive) classified modern investing (tradfi) as being a loser's game (which I agree).

There are 2 types of games:

• Winner's games: Victory is determined by exceptional skill beyond expected play.
  
  

• Loser's games: Victory is determined by just screwing up less than the other player(s).

IMO, crypto used to be a winner's game - above average levels of technical savvy was required to participate and to win. Today, I postulate that crypto has evolved largely into a loser's game - where simply surviving is all you need to do to win. This was not a binary inflection moment, but a gradual increase in participation of sophisticated players since 2020.

But make no mistake - there has been, and there always will be winners and losers, in crypto, in tradfi markets, and in most things in life.

Let’s take the memecoin meta (this cycle’s manifestation of degeneracy) as a case study. To win, you probably need some form of technical savvy, to understand CAs and monitor liquidity pools and maybe a cute little following on twitter so you have exit liquidity to dump on. Winning is winning, regardless if you cross legal or moral boundaries. I won’t say that it is right, but I do recognize that it is a way (acknowledgment is not an endorsement). If your inner Karen is firing up, let me warmly welcome you to crypto, sweetheart. If you can make money permissionlessly, you can fucking lose it that way too. Lazarus sends their regards. From the loser’s game perspective, you “win” by simply not playing because you know that you don’t have a significant and lasting edge to actually come up on top.

Just because memecoins are zero (arguably negative) sum, doesn’t mean that no one makes money. Money is definitely being made for sure, the question is whether the money is being made by YOU? There is some old saying about spotting the sucker at the poker table, seems somewhat relevant here.

Another case study, this time as a winner’s game winner:

As a wee spartan, I myself trenched at the frontlines of degeneracy food farming. I was farming tokens that had no value. My winning edge back then was lucidly knowing that the tokens were valueless, and therefore understanding that it was suicide to hold any of those tokens long term, as well as participating in the seductively high pool 2 APRs (you are the yield for pool 1).

So being the pussy that I am, I farmed jizzillions of soon-to-be-worthless tokens from pool 1, and repeatedly FSH'd the liquidity pools until they went to zero.

The loser’s game winners were those that just didn’t participate in food farming and ended up surviving to enjoy the bullmarket of 2021, while the competition had thinned themselves out.

I suppose my point is that when it comes to any game, you need an edge to win.

I know that sounds pretty unfair for the average degen that isn't a KOL with a fanclub of deepthroat toxic dumpees to serve as exit liquidity, but life ain't fair to begin with.

The proper response isn't to complain about the unfairness borne by the average degen, but to reflect on what one should do given the fact that it is what it is. Double down, dig deeper and do the "due diligence" so that your trench warfare tactics gives you an edge? I am not convinced.

Immediately, the counter argument to my anti-trenching pussy mindset is that because I am rich, I am sitting up in my ivory tower in Pyongyang and i no longer need to be in the trenches PvPing for a cheeky 100x.

However, let me definitively remind you that it is absolutely canon and backed by onchain evidence that I only have 1 ETH, so if anyone needs to be in the trenches, brothers and sisters in coin, it should be me.

In one way or another, we're all playing dumping games on each other - everyone is just operating on different time horizons.

So how do you have an edge if you actually aren't a genius?

Zoom out from the game.
You win by selecting to only play games that you have an edge in and surviving.

In practical terms:
Whether the market has already topped or if it's just a bear trap (fyi, the biggest that I've ever seen) (but also, they won't trap me) is, surprisingly, NOT very important at all.

What is of utmost importance is that you survive, cum what may. And I think that simply involves having enough runway banked up so that you are never forced to sell early, or forced to participate in -EV hunger games that you have no edge in.

A portfolio of just cash and crypto, if sized correctly, will allow one to stay retarded and alive longer than most others can stay solvent.

That's my Fortress of Fucking Solitude.

(Well, at least that's my version of it anyway. The Gambler's version is actually more defensive, since you're living off interest from the portfolio, while mine is artificially creating a payout to match expenses that only lasts as long as your runway, by splitting the portfolio into upside risk and defensive fodder.

Instead of being 110% all in crypto, why not dial it down a bit and be 90% crypto and 10% cash instead? Or whatever numbers that work for you to guarantee survival, while still staying exposed to the market.

If the market has topped - and you're sitting on a fat stack of cash + everything else crypto - and the market goes to shit for the next 4 years, guess what?

Hakuna matata. You'll be fine. Most other people - maybe no.

If this is the biggest bear trap that l've ever seen (which, btw, wont trap me) and you're sitting on a fat stack of cash + everything else crypto, guess what? Instead of ultra sick gains, you end up with sick gains.

Cue the world's smallest violin to mourn you only being a centimillionaire instead of a billionaire.

Anyway, my point is that a real tangible edge that you can manufacture for yourself and use to win, is simply just not dying.

Stay alive and you'll slowly notice everyone around you tends to shoot themselves in the head (too soon?).

Them doxxed suits won't talk about this, because they can't. They don't have access to this edge. They have reports to write, tweets to post for thoughtleadering, benchmarks to underperform against and investors' dicks to suck. Busy busy busy. Only individuals like you and me can actually play this strategy and make use of this edge. Sitting in your fortress of fucking solitude and saying fuck you to everyone else does not need to be a last resort - it is a vibe that can be preferred and enjoyed (Octoshi mood).

You don't really need to do anything fancy or special to win.

You don't need leverage, options, perpetuals, futures, etc etc. In fact, you barely need to know or to do anything. Expunge it all. Enjoy the eternal sunshine of a thoughtless mind.

You just need to not do anything silly while everyone else PvPs, TK each other and financially euthanize themselves. The weak are weeded out from the herd. The strong survive and we live to die another day.

Just don't die.

And if you survive, you will have no choice, but to make it.

Original article has been disabled, original source was https://www.egirlcapital.com/writings/dE4AzaSbREOMppMqRmFpuA

Fortress of solitude. Perpetual Objective: Survive